Risk Management with Chart Patterns – Trading Systems – 25 March 2022

Risk management is the most important success factor for your trading. For any trading strategy, you can not grow your capital without risk management. When you trade with Chart Patterns like Harmonic Pattern and Elliott Wave pattern and X3 Price Pattern, this is not an exception.

X3 Chart Pattern Scanner is using the risk management concept with Pattern Completion Interval for your trading. Please make sure that you understand the role of Pattern Completion Interval and how it can help for your trading.

In X3 Chart Pattern Scanner, your stop loss and take profit is controlled for individual patterns. It is controlled per pattern. This is the main difference from Harmonic Pattern Plus and Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner. Since X3 Chart Pattern Scanner has different categories of patterns like Elliott Wave patterns, Harmonic patterns and X3 Price Patterns, you can apply different money management scheme if you wish.

To change your stop loss and take profit, scroll down in your input. Stop Loss = 1 means that it is size of 1 x Pattern Completion Interval Box. Take Profit = 2.5 means that it is size of 2.5 x Pattern Completion Interval.

X3 Chart Pattern Scanner provides all the historical patterns, helping you to tune your strategy. Hence, please test your strategy and change your stop loss and take profit according to your historical observation from your chart. We have already shown you how to test your strategy with X3 Chart Pattern Scanner in another article here.

https://algotrading-investment.com/2019/09/18/showing-historical-patterns-in-profitable-pattern-scanner/

Here is link the X3 Chart Pattern Scanner

https://algotrading-investment.com/portfolio-item/profitable-pattern-scanner/

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/41992

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/41993

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Heavy Sell-Off Stalls Ahead of Multi-Week Support

USD/CAD Price, Chart, and Analysis

  • The Loonie continues to benefit from a red-hot oil complex.
  • The move lower is stalling ahead of strong support.

For a list of all market-moving data releases and events see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

The drift lower today in oil has taken the heat out of the recent Canadian dollar outperformance but the overall, and likely ongoing, strength in the oil market will continue to brace the Loonie in the weeks ahead. The Canadian dollar has also been boosted by the rise in short-term Canadian bond yields as the market prices in future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.

USD/CAD Forecast: Heavy Sell-Off Stalls Ahead of Multi-Week Support

The latest look at market expectations for further Canadian rate hikes show an unbroken series of rate increases all the way through to the end of the year, underpinning the currency further.

USD/CAD Forecast: Heavy Sell-Off Stalls Ahead of Multi-Week Support

The daily USD/CAD chart shows the extent of the Canadian dollar’s outperformance against its neighbor over the last two weeks. The slide below all three simple moving averages suggests that this move may have more to go in the medium-term although support around 1.2450 will likely hold at least the first attempt. The CCI indicator shows the pair in oversold territory and this needs to be washed out before the pair can attempt to move lower. It is likely that the pair will consolidate around current levels before making the next move.

USDCAD Daily Price Chart March 25, 2022

USD/CAD Forecast: Heavy Sell-Off Stalls Ahead of Multi-Week Support

Retail trader data show 68.90% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.22 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.02% lower than yesterday and 14.75% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.66% lower than yesterday and 7.48% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall.

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias.

What is your view on theUSDCAD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.



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XAU/USD: in the bull market zone – Analytics & Forecasts – 25 March 2022

At the time of writing this article, the XAU/USD pair is trading near the 1957.00 mark, remaining in the bull market zone. A strong upward momentum prevails. In the current situation, long positions look preferable. A signal to enter them may be a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1965.00. However, the decline to short-term support levels of 1949.00, 1942.00 provides additional opportunities to increase long positions. Above the key support level of 1838.00, XAU/USD remains in the long-term bull market zone.

One of the main reasons for the rise in prices is the geopolitical tension in the world and the situation in Ukraine, where Russia is conducting a military special operation, and on the other hand, it is the accelerating inflation in the world.

Despite the Fed’s plans to further tighten monetary policy, there are no strong grounds for lowering the price of gold. On the contrary, many economists expect its growth to resume, especially if it becomes obvious that the Fed is unable to cope with rising inflation. Investors seem to perceive investing in the precious metal as a hedging tool and store of value, rather than as a speculative position.

Support levels: 1949.00 1942.00 1918.00 1910.00 1901.00 1877.00 1850.00 1838.00 1832.00 1800.00 1785.00 1752.00

Resistance levels: 1965.00, 1975.00, 2000.00, 2010.00, 2070.00, 2075.00

See also – > Trading recommendations

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AUD/USD Risks Tilted Towards Further Gains

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar to Find Support on Dips
  • IG Client Sentiment Remains Bullish for the Aussie

Australian Dollar to Find Support on Dips

The Australian Dollar goes from strength to strength as firmer commodity prices underpins. This has somewhat shielded the currency from the recent geopolitical tensions and the increased hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. What’s more, with Australia experiencing a strong balance of payment position, supported by record trade surpluses, this further adds to support for the currency. As such, the outlook for the Aussie remains bullish where dips will likely to find support. This will be particularly the case given that the RBA appears to be further behind the curve on the inflation front relative to its counterparts. With the AUDUSD breaking above the 0.7500 handle, eyes are geared towards a test of 0.7800 in the medium term.

IG Client Sentiment: AUD/USD

Data shows 35.59% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.81 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.72% higher than yesterday and 15.99% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.35% higher than yesterday and 23.90% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise.

Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

AUD/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Risks Tilted Towards Further Gains

Source: Refinitiv



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BoJ Favors Yen Weakness, Bull Run to Continue

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY News and Analysis

  • BoJ Governor Kuroda favors yen appreciation despite expressing caution around the drawbacks
  • USD/JPY to rise further on the back of comments, 125 in sight
  • IG client sentiment remains heavily net-short but signs of short covering emerge

BoJ’s Kuroda Favors Yen Weakness

The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda mentioned that a weak yen pushes up the value of Japan firm’s profits earned overseas, which helps boost capital expenditure and wages. He continued to state that the weak yen is positive for the Japanese economy as a whole.

Concerns were raised that the benefits of the yen weakness could be uneven across industries and that a weak yen negatively impacts household’s real income and firms that are reliant on imports. On the whole, the comments have been viewed in a positive light with regard to the current USD/JPY bull run despite the pullback.

Key USD/JPY Technical Levels

Ever since breaking above 116, USD/JPY has soared as Japan’s terms of trade worsen due to rising raw material and commodity prices. 120 was surpassed with ease before breaching 121.85. This morning we have witnessed a pullback which could be representative of profit taking and appears to present an opportunity to re-enter the bullish trend from lower levels. The pair is coming back from oversold conditions which could signal that further room to the upside may become available.

A break and close on the daily chart above 121.85 would see 124.15 appear as resistance. Support seems quite a distance away at 120.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Price Forecast: BoJ Favors Yen Weakness, Bull Run to Continue

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

The monthly chart helps identify the potential level of resistance with respect to the recent bullish momentum. A conservative approach would be to look at the 124.15 level ahead of the psychological 125.00 level which may prove a stretch too far.

USD/JPY Monthly Chart

USD/JPY Price Forecast: BoJ Favors Yen Weakness, Bull Run to Continue

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Client Sentiment Mixed, as Signs of Short Covering Emerge

It is an unfortunate observation that retail clients, on aggregate, appear to fight trends in search of reversals. Such a conclusion can be reached when analyzing strong trending markets against retail client sentiment and the current uptrend in USD/JPY is no different. Take a look at the guide below for more insights on how to interpret consumer sentiment.

Traders are way more net-short than net-long (3.5 times more) but developments over the last week as net-longs pick up, suggest we could start to see the gap closing. With clients heavily short, rising prices may cause traders to ‘buy to close’ – resulting in an increase in longs.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: BoJ Favors Yen Weakness, Bull Run to Continue

  • USD/JPY: Retail trader data shows 21.39% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.67 to 1.
  • The number of traders net-long is 4.08% lower than yesterday and 4.17% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.68% higher than yesterday and 0.48% higher from last week.
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise.
  • Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias.

— Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX



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Projecting Significant Channels into Future with EFW Analytics – Trading Systems – 25 March 2022

Projecting Significant Channels into Future with EFW Analytics

EFW Analytics is a powerful tool for your trading. EFW analytics contains multiple of features. One of them is project significant channels into future (available from version 10.6). The concept behind this is similar to viewing neighboring Channel feature. The difference is that this feature project the channels into future instead of showing them the past footage. Of course, this is fully automatic feature in just one button click. To project the channels into upper price range, just click “Upper” button. To project the channels into lower price range, just click “Lower” button. Once button is clicked, EFW analytics will show 1 to several important lines for your trading. If you want to fine tune the lines, then you can check their rating information. To do so, just move your mouse over each line. Then you can read rating of each channel in your chart. If you believe that some lines are absolutely important, then make sure that you lock them in your chart for nurture reference. To lock the lines, just click over the lines. That is all. Your trading will be ready in 1 minutes. No rocket science at all. It is just one button click.

Below is the link to the EFW Analytics (Equilibrium Fractal Wave Analytics):

https://algotrading-investment.com/portfolio-item/equilibrium-fractal-wave-analytics/

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/27703

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/27702

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Dollar Lower, Yen Gains; Central Bank Actions in Focus By Investing.com



By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged lower Friday, with the much-battered Japanese yen seeing some respite, at the end of a week which has seen rising expectations of a faster Federal Reserve tightening cycle. 

At 4:15 AM ET (0815 GMT), the , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower at 98.655.

The dollar has seen buying this week as a number of Federal Reserve policymakers have lined up to signal that the central bank is prepared to take strong action to combat inflation at 40-year highs.

The Fed raised the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point at their meeting last week, the first increase since December 2018, and expectations are rising that the U.S. central bank will hike by a more aggressive 50 basis points when it next meets.

We think the market “is inching closer to pricing in 100bp of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve at the next two meetings,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

U.S. benchmark yields were last seen trading at 2.36%, not far removed from the highest level since 2019, providing support for the dollar.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts on U.S. Treasury yields for this year, given this hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve. The influential investment bank now expects benchmark 10-year yields to rise to 2.7% by year-end, up from its previous forecast of 2.25%. 

fell 0.6% to 121.65, falling back from a six-year high, following the lack of intervention from the Bank of Japan when selling pushed its government bond yields close to its 0.25% target, climbing 3 basis points to a six-year high of 0.24%.

While this lack of intervention hinted at policy flexibility, the yield differential still suggests the USD/JPY has further to climb.

Elsewhere, rose 0.1% to 1.1012, helped by falling European prices with a deal between President Joe Biden and the European Union paved the way for more imports from the U.S. to reduce the bloc’s reliance on Russian energy expected to be announced on Friday. 

“The underlying tone has firmed somewhat and EUR could edge higher today,” said foreign exchange strategists at UOB Group, “However, any advance is expected to face solid resistance at 1.1045. Support is at 1.0985 followed by 1.0965.”

fell 0.1% to 1.3175 after British unexpectedly falling 0.3% in February from January, compared with the expected 0.6% monthly rise.

British inflation rose to a new 30-year high of 6.2% last month, at the very top end of expectations, and this drop in retail sales is unlikely to cause the Bank of England to stop its rate-hiking cycle.

dropped 0.1% to 0.7507, fell 0.1% to 0.6958, both handing back a small portion of their recent gains, while edged lower to 6.3656.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Dollar Down, Yen Remains Friendless Over High Import Costs, Low Interest Rates By Investing.com


© Reuters.

By Gina Lee

Investing.com – The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia, and the Japanese yen was set for its worst week in two years. Rising import costs and low interest rates contributed to the yen’s downward trend, but commodity currencies were set for a second consecutive weekly gain on the dollar as export prices continue to soar.

The that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.26% to 98.540 by 11:43 PM ET (3:43 AM GMT).

The pair fell 0.61% to 121.58. released earlier in the day showed that the for March 2022 grew 1.3%, and the grew 0.8%, year-on-year. The also grew 0.2% month-on-month.

The pair inched up 0.08% to 0.7518 and the pair inched up 0.06% to 0.6969.

The pair inched down 0.1% to 6.3616 while the pair edged up 0.19% to 1.3208.

Concerns that rising energy and food costs stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 could hurt the European economy continue. The euro has been slightly softer throughout the week and was pinned at $1.1005.

Australia, an exporter of both energy and food, was one beneficiary of rising costs and the Aussie recorded a second consecutive weekly rise of more than 1%.

However, the yen has dropped 2.6% against the dollar for the week, falling past the 120 mark and eyeing a test of major resistance around 123.70. It has lost nearly 6% through March 2022 to date and dropped some 8% against the Australian dollar in eight sessions.

The latest fall was triggered by hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier in the week that also drove a surge in U.S. yields. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has, for its part, stuck to a more dovish tone than the Fed, but some investors warned that, at a six-year low, the yen is falling towards some uncomfortable depths.

“One thing to watch for in dollar/yen is pushback from policymakers in Japan,” Spectra Markets trader and president Donnelly told Reuters.

I’m not sure we’re quite there yet, but the 123.50/125.00 level is almost certain to attract some attention and generate headlines from either Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida or Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki. Pushback could also come from BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda,” he said.

Recent movements in the bond market are also putting central banks between a rock and a hard place. Defending a challenge to yield curve control could further weaken the yen. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds hit 0.235% on Friday, near its 0.25% upper limit.

The Russian rouble traded firmly in Thursday’s European session after President Vladimir Putin vowed to start selling gas to “unfriendly” countries in the currency. However, it lost some of these gains in thin offshore trade and last traded at 102 per dollar.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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Friendless yen faces third straight week of decline By Reuters


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound and Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in this picture illustration, January 21, 2016. REUTERS/Jason Lee

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The yen was headed for its worst week in two years on Friday, pummelled by Japan’s rising import costs and low interest rates, while commodity currencies were set for a second consecutive weekly gain on the dollar as export prices remain elevated.

The euro has been slightly softer this week and was pinned at $1.1005 by concern that conflict in Ukraine will hurt Europe’s economy by raising energy and food costs.

Australia is an exporter of both and rising prices have helped the local dollar to a second weekly rise of more than 1% in a row. The was last steady at $0.7508, just below an overnight four-month high of $0.7527.

The yen, by contrast, is breaking down and has shed 2.6% against the greenback for the week. It has fallen past the psychological 120-per-dollar barrier and, at 122.44, is eyeing a test of major resistance around 123.70.

It has lost nearly 6% through March and been smoked even harder on crosses, losing some 8% against a resurgent Aussie in just eight sessions.

The latest leg of the tumble was triggered by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week, and a subsequent rip higher in U.S. yields.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has also stuck, by contrast, to a dovish tone, though some traders are starting to think that, at a six-year low, the yen is plumbing some uncomfortable depths.

“One thing to watch for in dollar/yen is pushback from policymakers in Japan,” said Donnelly, trader and president at analytics firm Spectra Markets.

“I’m not sure we’re quite there yet, but the 123.50/125.00 level is almost certain to attract some attention and generate headlines from either PM (Fumio) Kishida or FinMin (Shunichi)Suzuki,” he said.

“Pushback could also come from BoJ (Governor Haruhiko) Kuroda.”

The bond market is also putting policymakers between a rock and a hard place by bringing on a challenge to yield curve control, which if defended could further weaken the yen.

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds hit 0.235% on Friday, close to its upper limit of 0.25%.

Inflation is yet another pressure point, and core consumer prices in Tokyo have logged their fastest annual increase in more than two years this month, data showed on Friday.

Elsewhere gains in commodity prices have supported the New Zealand dollar, though it has run into stiff resistance just short of $0.70 and was last at $0.6964. [NZD/]

Sterling hovered at $1.3190 as traders weigh a cautiously dovish outlook from the Bank of England against February data that showed higher-than-expected inflation. [GBP/]

Russia’s rouble traded firmly in Moscow overnight following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vow to start selling gas to “unfriendly” countries in roubles, but it handed back some gains in thin offshore trade.

It was last at 102.00 per dollar.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 0034 GMT

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar

$1.1009 $1.0998 +0.10% -3.16% +1.1011 +1.0995

Dollar/Yen

122.1400 122.3150 +0.09% +0.00% +122.4300 +122.3500

Euro/Yen

134.46 134.56 -0.07% +3.18% +134.7400 +134.2700

Dollar/Swiss

0.9281 0.9301 -0.19% +1.77% +0.9302 +0.9279

Sterling/Dollar

1.3193 1.3188 +0.02% -2.47% +1.3198 +1.3189

Dollar/Canadian

1.2536 1.2526 +0.09% -0.84% +1.2538 +1.2518

Aussie/Dollar

0.7510 0.7514 -0.04% +3.32% +0.7518 +0.7504

NZ

Dollar/Dollar 0.6964 0.6965 +0.01% +1.76% +0.6966 +0.6958

All spots

Tokyo spots

Europe spots

Volatilities

Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ

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USD/JPY Breaches 2016 High as APAC Traders Eye Risk-On Session

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Oil, Market Sentiment – Talking Points

  • Asia-Pacific equity markets eye a bright finish to the week after US stocks rise
  • Oil prices pulled back overnight as NATO aims to supply more arms to Ukraine
  • USD/JPY breaks above the 2016 high, with oscillators pointing to more gains

Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific traders will look to close out the week on a high note as markets shift back into a risk-on stance as oil prices drop and US equities rise. The high-beta Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) rose nearly 2% in New York trading overnight. WTI crude and Brent crude oil prices fell despite a recommitment from NATO to supply Ukraine with more aid as Russia’s indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities intensified despite fierce backlash from Ukrainian forces. Those forces reportedly destroyed a Russian warship this morning in Berdyansk, a port town west of Mariupol. The Japanese Yen extended its decline versus the Greenback overnight, with USD/JPY rising to its highest level since December 2015.

The Australian Dollar rose for a third day against the US Dollar, supported by a strong set of Australian PMI numbers released on Thursday. That data firmed up Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike bets, with cash rate futures showing a rate liftoff as soon as the June board meeting. RBA Chief Philip Lowe has slowly but steadily capitulated on a possible rate hike this year, even though wage inflation hasn’t risen as strongly as previously expected. Aussie Dollar traders will evaluate retail sales for February, due out next week. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is likely to take its cues from broader market sentiment and commodity prices.

Japan will release inflation data for Tokyo’s March period this morning. Bank of Japan policymakers are signaling that the war in Eastern Europe is likely to stoke higher prices in the Japanese economy due to higher raw material costs. However, the BOJ doesn’t appear to have much enthusiasm to remove its super-easy policy accommodations yet. For now, inflation in Japan remains rather subdued compared to other G7 economies. The dovish talk has seen the divergence between Fed and BOJ policies widen, increasing short bets on the Yen to the Dollar’s advantage. That will likely underpin USD/JPY even with the currency pair at multi-year highs.

The week will end with a light economic event docket. The Philippines’ retail price index for December and its first-quarter business confidence are set to cross the wires. Taiwan’s consumer confidence will see an update for March. China’s fourth-quarter current account balance is due out, and India will wrap up the week with bank loan growth and deposit growth figures for the week ending March 11.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast

USD/JPY broke above the 2016 high (121.68) overnight after the Yen weakened for a fifth straight day versus the US Dollar. That move stemmed from the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the January high/low move. A pullback may see the former 2016 act as support. However, prices look set to rise further, indicated by strength in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD oscillators. The 361.8% Fib extension and the 2015 high at 125.85 are possible targets that may be hit shortly if the current pace keeps up.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

usdjpy chart, yen chart

Chart created with TradingView

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— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter



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