Why Should You Keep a Trading Journal?

A trading journal is a document where traders record everything they do during a trading session. This includes strategy, risk management, psychology, and more. Many traders rely on their journal as a “trading roadmap” to help determine the path to reach their trading goals.

Watch this 2-minute video to learn more about keeping a trading journal.

Benefits of Keeping a Trading Journal

Track Trade Details – Keep a daily trading journal to keep track of the details of your trading experience. It helps to put a focus on post-trade analysis.

Use Pen & Paper – Use pen and paper when creating your trade journal. Your brain processes information differently when you write things down thus improving understanding and memory retention.

Track Time – Keep track of the time of day you open and closed your positions. Are you a better trader in the morning or later in the day?

Review Often – Review your trading journal and see if you can identify your strengths and common mistakes. Reviewing often can also help you avoid repeating mistakes.

Write Down Observations – Make sure to write down trading observations. For example “was my stop too tight?” or “my pre-open counter trend didn’t work again” can help you refine your strategy.

Don’t Deviate From Your Plan – Did you deviate from your initial trading plan by moving a stop or profit target mid-stream? If so, why?

There are many great reasons to keep a trading journal and we just covered a few. If you aren’t currently keeping a trading journal, try it out! NinjaTrader even has built-in journal capabilities where traders can simultaneously journal while trading and conducting market analysis.

Get Started with NinjaTrader

NinjaTrader supports more than 500,000 traders worldwide with a powerful and user-friendly trading platform, discount futures brokerage and world-class support. NinjaTrader is always free to use for advanced charting & strategy backtesting through an immersive trading simulator.

Download NinjaTrader’s award-winning trading platform and get started with a free trading demo with real-time market data today!

This article is intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be viewed as a solicitation or recommendation of any product, service or trading strategy. It includes content from independent persons or companies that are in no manner affiliated with NinjaTrader Group (NTG) or any of its affiliates. The content and opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of NinjaTrader or any of its affiliates.

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Applying Turing Point Prediction in Forex Market – Trading Systems – 26 March 2022

In this article, we provide an explanation on how to apply the turning point prediction in Forex Market. Here we will be using Swing Size and Swing Age variable to identify the turning point probability for each price swing.

  • Swing Age is the count of candle bars from latest bar to the swing right end.
  • Swing Size is the count of candle bars from the swing right end to swing left end

As these two variable provides you the relative coordinate of the right end and left end of the price swing, you can locate the turning point value for each price swing. Check the screenshot to clarify your understanding.

In terms of application, the turning point prediction is useful as it quantifies your risk for trading between 0.0 and 1.0 (or 100%). Quantification in your trading is always good because you have something to stick as a guidance for your trading. When you do not have the guidance, you will often find that your emotion will ruin your trading.

There are two basic concepts in regards to the probability and some advanced concepts in regards to Mother Wave and Child Wave. For your own good, everyone should understand the basic concepts if you want to improve your trading performance in long run.

In the first basic concept, if the price reaches the turning point probability above 0.7 (or 70%), in this turning point probability range, you can look for the potential reversal opportunity. In another words, it is the good point to detect the directional change in the market. It could be either correction or global turning point.

In the second basic concept, if the price reaches the turning point probability between 0.0 and 0.5 (or 50%), you can find the good breakout opportunity. In another words, it is the good point to detect the continuation in the price movement. We will omit the advanced concepts here as it was already explained elsewhere.

If you do not have an access to the Turning Point Prediction, then it is fine as we provide the Turning Point Prediction for Forex Market for free.  Anyone can access the standard turning point prediction for your day trading for free of charge from the link below.

https://algotrading-investment.com/2020/10/23/price-prediction-for-day-trading/

At the same time, if you want to have the scanner for the MetaTrader 4 or MetaTrader 5, here is the links to Fractal Pattern Scanner. In Fractal Pattern Scanner, you can access the turning point probability scanner + mother wave breakout signals,  reversal signals, and many more advanced features.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/49170

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/49169

https://algotrading-investment.com/portfolio-item/fractal-pattern-scanner/

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Earth Guide – Analytics & Forecasts – 26 March 2022

Introduction

Welcome to my guide for the expert-advisor Earth.
You can find the product here: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/74578
You can find the live signal here: https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/1263438

Earth is an EA designed for EURUSD, so it is not recommended to use it elsewhere. 
The timeframe has no real impact on live trading but in order to have better test quality, the recommended timeframe is M1
This EA requires an Hedge account (not working on netting account), leverage 1:30 and above recommended.
The recommended broker is ICMarkets.

Concept

The idea behind Earth is simple: Identify and use patterns that have worked in the near past using homemade indicators that differentiate it from anything else on the market.

The EA uses a list of strategies:

  • Each one is independent.
  • Each one has a signal, a TP and an SL.
  • Each one is regularly updated depending of its performances.

This implies a perpetual evolution of the algorithm.

This process was entirely created and developed by myself without the using external software outside Metatrader.

Updates

As said above, Earth is a new concept of EA which needs to be updated frequently.

-Do I have to update it?

I very, very strongly recommend to update the EA. If you don’t, you will be gradually losing performance.
If this is a problem for you, you can follow my signal which is automatically updated,
so you won’t have to do it: https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/1263438

-How to be inform when the update is live? 

You will receive an MQL5 private message as soon as the update is available. I also alert on my discord myx.gg/discord in the channel #earth-EURUSD.

-How can I update Earth?

  1. Open the Navigator: View->Navigator (ctrl+N)
  2. Select Purchases: Market->My Purchases
  3. Select Earth and press the update button. (If you don’t see the update, restart mql5. Sometimes it takes few hours to be display inside MT5)

Risks

Earth is a recent experimental expert-advisor. It is important to consider that this EA does not have a long enough history to confirm its performance over the long term.

It uses past data to anticipate a high success rate, however the outcome is not guaranteed. Always remember that the market is unpredictable.

Sometimes people come to me shocked after installing Earth to tell me that it has hit several stoploss. This Expert-Advisor is necessarily going to hit some SL. You must understand this and manage your exposure in accordance with your risk profile. 

Earth could also be impacted by unforeseen events like a blackswan. This would impact the market by bringing high volatility, making it more difficult to read the pattern that we see in a more classic market.

There are several ways to manage your risk.
The risk per trade, the maximum number of trades, the equity SL and TP etc..
The risk per trade defines the percentage of the balance that will be lose in case of a SL (if the balance is enough, otherwise it will be higher).
The number of trades if important to combine with the risk per trade. If you set a risk per trade of 5% with 10 trades, you are willing to lose 10*5% = 50% if 10 trades are opened on the same period.
If you don’t want to risk too much or if you want to secure your profits, you can set a limit with the equity SL & TP, the EA will stop trade once the limit is reached.

Pricing

Earth’s price includes the cost of maintenance, which means hardware, electricity and operating time.
The system of monthly rental allows to not expose the customers to a stop of the updates which would make the robot less efficient over the time.
This system also allows you to reinvest your profits to cover the cost of the Expert-Advisor.

Each month in profit (based on my signal), the monthly cost will increase, each month in loss, it will decrease.

Inputs (UNFINISHED PART)

-Account type: Select your broker account type between ECN and Standard. It will calculate TP and SL depending on your account type.

  1. ECN: ECN accounts have low spread, (usually 0) but have a commission per trade.
  2. Standard: Standard accounts have a larger spread but no commission. 

Volume calculation type:

  1. only_initial_lot: Select this option if you want the order to always have the select initial lot.
  2. risk_per_trade: Select this option to determine the order volume by the risk on your balance, in percentage. For example: If I have a 10,000$ balance, and I use 1% risk per trade, each SL hit will cost around 100$. 

Percentage risk per trade: Define the risk per trade  if you have chosen the risk_per_trade option.

Initial lot: Define the initial lot if you have chosen the only_initial_lot option.

Maximum lot size per order: Define a maximum lot size that the EA will use for each order.

Use trailing: Choose if you want to activate the trailing stop (choose false to deactivate). I do not recommend to enable this option.

Trailing start: Set the distance to start the trailing if the trailing option is true, in points.

Trailing distanceSet the trailing distance if the trailing option is true, in points.

Maximum spread: Define the maximum spread to open an order. Set 0 if you don’t want to filter spread. If active, or that have a spread above the limit will not be open.

Maximum number of orders:  Defines the maximum number of orders that the EA can open at the same time. If you set 0, the EA will not open order. This number is important because it i

Earth chart color: Choose if you want to use the Earth custom chart color. Using false will use the default color.

Magic number: A unique number for the EA to identify the orders. Use a different magic number from your other EA.

Equity TP: Set an equity TP. Set to 0 to disable this feature

For example, if you start with a 300 usd balance, you can set a target of 500 usd. If the equity goes above 500 usd, the EA will close all orders and stop the trading until you change this limit or withdraw your balance.

Equity SLSet an equity SL. Set to 0 to disable this feature. 

For example, if you start with a 300 usd balance, you can set a stoploss of 100 usd. If the equity goes below 100 usd, the EA will close all orders and stop the trading until you change this limit or adjust your balance.

Settings

There are many ways to manage your risk. I’ll summarize it all in a simple table:

Low risk Medium risk High risk All in 
Percentage risk per trade 0.5% 1% 2% 5%
Maximum number of orders 3 5 10 20

Recommended broker

Some people can see that they have different results between their Broker and my Earth EURUSD signal. 

Indeed, the EA Earth trades according to the data it receives from the broker and the values that some indicators may have. This information comes directly from the broker via the data received in real time, but also the liquidity available. The brokers do not use the same data and liquidity providers. This results in a possible disparity of signals from some brokers, especially those of poor quality.

My recommended broker for Earth is ICMarkets.

I have been working with ICMarkets for several years and it is by using their data that I develop my EAs. That’s why I recommend this broker.  
What people think about ? They have 4.9/5⭐ on Trustpilot for ~20000 reviews.

Why do I use ?

– Zero spread on major pairs
– Fast trade execution, ideal for an Expert Advisor
– Effective support that answers my questions in 2 minutes
– Simple deposit & withdrawal
– Access to the 1:500 leverage

You can try on a demo account for free.
Support my work by using this link: https://www.icmarkets.com/?camp=56886

Forex rebates 

Forex rebates are a portion of the transaction cost that is paid back to the client on each trade, resulting in a commission discount, a lower spread or a cashback that you can directly send to your paypal account. This improved win ratio or help you to pay the VPS each month.
Many traders initially believe there must be higher costs elsewhere to compensate, however there is no catch and rebates truly reduce the costs of the transaction and improve their bottom line.

-How do forex rebates work?

When you link a new or existing forex trading account, the broker pays the rebate provider part of their spread or commission profit for every trade you make as compensation for referring a customer to them. They share the majority of their revenue with you, paying you a cash rebate for each trade you make as thank you for signing up with us.

If you already have a trading account (like ICMarkets), you can connect it to cashbackforex in order to have a commission discount like I have on my signal account. It just takes 2 minutes to setup, and it’s free!

I’ve been using this service for couple years now and I can personally recommend it. 
If you want to support my work, please use this link: https://www.cashbackforex.com/%23aid_351776.

Example: Here is the concrete application of the spread reduction on my Earth signal, it took me 2 minutes to make the request.

VPS

I use the same Windows VPS for more than 2 years now for my personal EAs & my signals. They offer a execution (for ICMarkets select Piscataway server).
It is the best price/performance ratio I have found so far. You can install multiple metatraders on windows. 
Give it a try: myx.gg/vps

FAQ (UNFINISHED PART)

coming soon

Conclusion

Earth is an expert-advisor that I have been developing for several years and that requires a lot of my time. After many, many iterations, the results are getting better and better. 

I will continue to improve it over time to always outperform my goals. I am also testing other pairs that I may add in the future. 

If you like my work, feel free to leave me a review.

Have a good day, 

Arthur

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MH Expert Advisor Martingale & Hedging 1 % – Trading Systems – 26 March 2022

Minimum balance required:

  • If deposit $100 use cent account
  • If deposit $500 use cent account
  • If deposit $900 use cent account 
  • If deposit  $1000 use micro account

MH Expert Advisor works for this pairs:

  • Currency pairs: EUR/USD
  • Timeframe: M5
  • Leverage: 1:500

Parameter settings for EUR/USD M5

  • MINIM_DAILY_PROFIT = 10000
  • BATAS_FREE_MARGIN = 50
  • JAM_ON   = 1
  • JAM_OFF  = 23
  • HEDGING = true
  • PARAMETER0 PROSENTASE FLOATING MINUS
  • prosentase_floating_minus = 1
  • PARAMETER1 = RSI
  • PERIOD_RSI = 14
  • LEVEL_OS = 30
  • LEVEL_OB = 70
  • SHIFT_RSI = 1
  • digit_belakang_lot = 2
  • lots = 0.01
  • USE_COMPOUND = true
  • KETAHANAN = 133333
  • tp_in_money = 999999
  • TP = 50
  • SL = 0
  • USE_MARTY = true
  • range = 35
  • multiplier = 1.5
  • MAX_OP_BUY = 5
  • MAX_OP_SELL = 5
  • MagicNumber = 12345
  • Slippage = 3

Buy or rent The MH Expert Advisor https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/35685

Demo account using MH Expert Advisor https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/776497

Recommendation broker

Support all broker select ECN account. If you change the parameter settings. Please try a demo account first until 3 months.

BEST TRADING PLAN USING THE MH EXPERT ADVISOR

If initial deposit of $1000. And the price drops, the loss balance reaches 50%. Funds must be added to the account according to the initial deposit of $1000 to avoid margin calls and account burnings.

Disclaimer

Forex trading has a risk of losing all your money. Martingale and hedging systems that we have used now are kind of risky in the forex trading considering they involve a lot of lots. We do not encourage newbies and beginners to take these systems and strategies because you would lose your money and forex account as well. There is no warranty if the automatic system would generate profits in the future.

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MH Expert Advisor With Hedging 1% – Trading Systems – 26 March 2022

Minimum balance required

If deposit $100 use cent account

If deposit $500 use cent account

If deposit $900 use cent account

If deposit  $1000 use micro account.

MH Expert Advisor works for this pairs:

  • Currency pairs: EUR/USD
  • Timeframe: M5
  • Leverage: 1:500

Parameter settings for EUR/USD M5

  • MINIM_DAILY_PROFIT = 10000
  • BATAS_FREE_MARGIN = 50
  • JAM_ON   = 1
  • JAM_OFF  = 23
  • HEDGING = true
  • PARAMETER0 PROSENTASE FLOATING MINUS
  • prosentase_floating_minus = 1
  • PARAMETER1 = RSI
  • PERIOD_RSI = 14
  • LEVEL_OS = 30
  • LEVEL_OB = 70
  • SHIFT_RSI = 1
  • digit_belakang_lot = 2
  • lots = 0.01
  • USE_COMPOUND = true
  • KETAHANAN = 133333
  • tp_in_money = 999999
  • TP = 50
  • SL = 0
  • USE_MARTY = true
  • range = 35
  • multiplier = 1.5
  • MAX_OP_BUY = 5
  • MAX_OP_SELL = 5
  • MagicNumber = 12345
  • Slippage = 3

Buy or rent The MH Expert Advisor https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/35685

Demo account using MH Expert Advisor https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/776497

Recommendation broker

Support all broker select ECN account. If you change the parameter settings. Please try a demo account first until 3 months.

BEST TRADING PLAN USING THE MH EXPERT ADVISOR

If initial deposit of $1000. And the price drops, the loss balance reaches 50%. Funds must be added to the account according to the initial deposit of $1000 to avoid margin calls and account burnings.

Disclaimer

Forex trading has a risk of losing all your money. Martingale and hedging systems that we have used now are kind of risky in the forex trading considering they involve a lot of lots. We do not encourage newbies and beginners to take these systems and strategies because you would lose your money and forex account as well. There is no warranty if the automatic system would generate profits in the future.

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AUD/USD Eyes Economic Data as RBA Hike Bets Increase

Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bullish

  • Aussie Dollar underpinned by commodity prices and rebounding sentiment
  • March PMI data shows Australia’s economic recovery is strengthening
  • RBA rate hike bets key to AUD/USD’s direction as potential risks linger

The Australian Dollar has been on a tear versus most of its major peers in recent weeks, boosted by rising commodity prices and a rebound in market sentiment. Upbeat domestic economic data has also helped to lift the Aussie Dollar. Last week, Australia’s March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the manufacturing and services sectors showed that the post-lockdown economy continues to improve.

That momentum will likely carry on as the economy continues to advance after Australia removed the brunt of Covid restrictions over the last few months, resulting in acute labor market growth. The upcoming week will see February’s preliminary retail sales figures cross the wires. Building permits for February and a Markit manufacturing PMI print for March will follow later in the week. Analysts expect to see that PMI figure rise to 57.3 from 57.0, according to a Bloomberg survey.

A better-than-expected set of data would likely fuel already rising rate hike bets for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), benefiting AUD further. Alternatively, disappointing data could halt AUD’s recent rally. A reversal in market sentiment would also weigh on the risk-sensitive currency, which could be induced by an escalation in Ukraine or an uptick in Covid cases in China. The 2022-2023 budget is also set to be presented on March 29 and could have an impact on the RBA’s outlook. The chart below displays the RBA’s implied policy rate for the December 2022 meeting measured by cash rate futures, currently pricing in around 150 basis points of tightening.

audusd vs rba implied policy rate

{{Newsletter}}

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter



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3 Key Tips to Becoming A Successful Trader

Ask an experienced trader about mistakes she’s made in the market, and she’ll probably be able to point to a bunch of them and to the scars that help her remember how to avoid them in the future. There’s the improvisation approach – a trader who hears an idea from a financial commentator on TV and decides to buy on impulse. Big mistake. Traders need a strategy and a plan.

Bottom fishing is another common trading mistake. The problem with investing in assets that look like they are at rock-bottom and can’t go cheaper, is that they often do go cheaper, or hover at a low point for a long, long time. Another trading trap is falling in love with your asset. No matter how smart the CEO of the company whose stock you hold, or how glittery that gold, successful traders know when they hit their stop, or designated selling point, it’s time to sell.

The single most important mistake that leads traders to lose money starts with psychology.

Vonetta Logan, a trader, host of tastytrade’s dailydose and Second City trained comedian known for her satirical view of the news affecting the financial space looks at why human psychology can make it tough to navigate markets. She talks about how we are our own worst enemies. We all know financial markets are dominated by uncertainty and risk. We also know that the mostcommon mistakes traders make have to do with poor risk management strategies.

Traders are often correct on the direction of a market. The problem lies is in how much profit is made when they are right versus how much they lose when wrong. In other words, traders tend to make less on winning trades than they lose on losing trades.

The core concept is simple yet profound: most people make economic decisions not on expected utility but on their attitudes towards winning and losing. That negative feeling you experience from a $500 loss can be substantially more than the positive feeling you experience from a $500 gain. Simply put, we take more pain from loss than pleasure from gain.

In practice, you need to find a way to straighten that utility curve—treat equivalent gains and losses as offsetting and thus become purely rational decision-makers.

In general, there are three tips traders should understand to increase their chances of success.

1. Get comfortable with the face that losing is a part of trading.

2. Set stop loss and limits to define your risk ahead of time.

3. Aim to achieve proper risk reward ratios when planning out trades.

Learn more by downloading our guide, Traits of Successful Traders.



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Supply and Demand Zone with Harmonic Pattern Indicator – Trading Systems – 25 March 2022

Supply and Demand Zone are the most important concept for your trading. Supply and Demand zone can be effectively combined with Harmonic Pattern Indicator to improve your trading performance. This is not about the number but about geometry. Your ability to combine these geometry together with Harmonic Pattern Indicator can typically form the secret trading recipes for your successful career. Here is the list of Supply and Demand Zone Indicator that can go together with your harmonic pattern indicator.

Mean Reversion Supply Demand

Classic supply and demand zone indicator. This tools is the great to produce highly accurate supply and demand zone.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/16823

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/16851

https://algotrading-investment.com/portfolio-item/mean-reversion-supply-demand/

Ace Supply Demand Zone 

This is also great supply and demand zone tool extending the ability of Mean Reversion Supply Demand. What is even better?  This is non repainting one. This is the great tool for different level of trader.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/40076

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/40075

https://algotrading-investment.com/portfolio-item/ace-supply-demand-zone/

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GBP/JPY Spiral to Continue Into Month-End

GBP/USDFUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Bank of England Rate Expectations Remain Far Too Aggressive
  • GBP/JPY Rise to Persist in Month End

The recent dovish BoE rate hike, in which the Bank voted in an 8-1 split to hike 25bps. The Pound alongside rate expectations remain supported. However, while the lone dissenter who voted for the Bank Rate to be left unchanged grabbed market participants’ attention, there was also a notable change in the forward guidance.

February statementSome further modest tightening in monetary policy “is likely” to be appropriate in the coming months

March statementSome further modest tightening in monetary policy “may” be appropriate in the coming months

This in turn suggests that the BoE could be soon approaching a pause in the hiking cycle and adopt a wait and see approach. This takes into account the more cautious view on the UK’s growth outlook in light of the escalation of geopolitical tensions. As such, while money markets price in over 75bps worth of hikes in the next three policy meetings there is a risk the Bank pauses at 1%. Keep in mind that with a bank rate at 1%, the BoE will have an additional option to tighten monetary policy through active selling of gilts.

BoE Rate Expectations

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP/JPY Spiral to Continue Into Month-End

Source: Refinitiv

What does this mean for GBP?

Now while a re-pricing lower would weigh on the Pound. It is worth highlighting that market participants have been reducing their exposure in GBP even in the lead up to the prior BoE meeting. Meanwhile, asset managers (real money funds) are holding a sizeable short position in the Pound, which may in fact provide a tailwind for the currency should geopolitical tensions ease. That said, aside from short term volatility from a re-pricing lower in rate expectations, the bigger driver for the Pound will be the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Although, the Pound may well struggle on the crosses vs currencies backed by hawkish central banks (CAD, NZD).

The Need to Know Complete Guide on Trading the Pound (GBP)

Looking ahead to next week, with little on the domestic front, the ebb and flow of risk appetite will dictate price action for the Pound. Meanwhile, upside is likely to persist for GBP/JPY heading into month-end. Now while the S&P 500 is up just over 3% month to date, as I have highlighted previously when the S&P 500 is up near 5% MTD, GBP/JPY has typically risen on the final trading day of the month.



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Exclusive-Battered Russia bonds a risk too far, says distressed debt fund Gramercy By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The skyscrapers of the Moscow International Business Centre, also known as “Moskva-City”, are seen just after sunset in Moscow, Russia July 12, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

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By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON (Reuters) – Distressed debt hedge fund Gramercy, which made a killing on Russian bonds after the 1998 crisis and has taken on Argentina and Venezuela over defaulted debt, says a bet on Russia now is too big a risk even with bonds trading at a tenth of face value.

Robert Koenigsberger, whose first trade as founder of Gramercy in 1998 was scooping up battered Russian bonds, said Moscow had shown a surprising willingness to service external debts despite sanctions imposed over its actions in Ukraine.

But Russia’s capacity to pay is running out of road as systems for settling and clearing trades and transferring bond ownership titles break down, Koenigsberger told Reuters.

“If I go call my clients and say country A is in default and it’s trading at 25 cents and I think it’s worth 50 – great. I’ll take a look at it.

“Try telling the same story on Russia. Nine out of 10 would say no and the tenth would say ‘hell, no’,” the chief investment officer of the $5.5 billion fund said in an interview.

Russia calls its Feb. 24 invasion a “special military operation” to disarm Ukraine, while Kyiv and the West say it is an unprovoked war of aggression.

Prices on some Russian bonds that had been languishing at around 10 cents on the dollar quadrupled in recent days after the country paid coupons and swerved a default. Russia’s 2043 bond for instance briefly hit 45 cents, up from 12 cents on March 8.

Those payments were possible due to a temporary U.S. licence authorising U.S. persons to receive payments on securities from certain sanctioned Russian government entities.

That exemption runs out on May 25, leaving in the balance nearly $2 billion in sovereign bond payments due until end-2022.

While that deadline could be flexible, Koenigsberger reckons Russia will find it increasingly difficult to pay. Sanctions have also immobilised much of Russia’s reserves warchest.

“What percentage of their debt service capability is tied up in other people’s hands? I can’t remember a time in history where there’s been a negotiation of reparations where the side that is wanting to get paid is holding the cash,” he said.

Gramercy is one of the best known among a breed of investors which specialise in buying beaten-up bonds and betting prices will recover or that they can take governments to court and win lengthy recovery battles.

Koenigsberger did not rule out ever buying Russian bonds, noting that Russia was forced in 1996 to settle pre-Revolution debt from the early 1900s before it could issue its first post-Soviet-era international bond.

“Russia might disappear for a long period of time but I would never say that the asset is worthless. The claim cannot be wiped out. But right now you would be buying a perpetual call option, not necessarily a bond,” Koenigsberger said.

Russia will be ejected from major bond and stock indexes as of March 31, meaning investors may write down the value of their holdings to zero or try to offload them to anyone who will buy.

“You’re going to see lower prices [on Russian bonds],” he said, predicting more forced selling.

BUYING UKRAINE

Gramercy has instead been buying Ukrainian dollar bonds, paying prices in the low 20 cents on the dollar.

Koenigsberger said it would look to exit in the high 30s or low 40s ahead of a formal debt restructuring that he expected would see the bonds written down by 50%, in line with past such deals involving Western creditors in Eastern Europe.

“Ukraine will be massively supported by the West throughout and on the other side of this. That being said, I would expect that there will be a quid pro quo for that support,” Koenigsberger added.

Ukraine’s 2040 bond traded on Friday around 24 cents on the dollar, up from lows of 13 cents earlier this month.

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